Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Wednesday February 7, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower
  • Bouncing off the lows and forming a down-sloping flag
  • Broke above a horizontal channel on 6-minute at 6:30 AM; the 161.8% extension target is near 2691.00
  • Broke above a symmetrical triangle on 6-minute chart; 100% extension target near 2688.00 is achieved
  • Odds are for an up day with increased volatility – watch for break below 2660.50 for a change of fortunes
  • No Key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly down – Tokyo and Sydney were up
  • European markets are up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cocoa
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.768% on February 6 down from February 5 close of 2.794%;
    • 30-years closed at 3.044% down from 3.067%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.101% down from 2.109%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.659 down from 0.762

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2674.07, 2656.44 and 2627.57
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2701.04, 2732.06 and 2763.39
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2687.50, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2660.50, the low of 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2694.75 and the index closed at 2695.14 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2694.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -10.25; Dow by -87.00; and NASDAQ by -20.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Dn-Side
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Up-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on February 2 was a bearish engulfing candle, with a very large decline, -3.9%
  • Last week’s pivot point 2797.57 R1=2835.18 R2=2908.22; S1=2724.53, S2=2686.92; S1/S2/S3 were breached;
  • A down week; first in last five weeks and second in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • Uptrend under pressure
  • A piercing candle following a very large red candle; a bounce is possible though not yet out of the woods
  • The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of February 2016 is near 2465.50; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from October 2016 lows is near 2570.00 and the index low on Monday was 2593.07
  • Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
  • Below 50-day EMA but above 100-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Bouncing off a low below 2600.00 near the lows reached on November 23, 2017; reached near the 50% at 2703.00 retracement of the decline from the highs; the 61.8% retracement is near 2745.00
  • RSI-9 rising from 3.92 and is above 50 but below 65
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since August 29, 2017 is broken
  • At (from below) 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Dn-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Forming a down-sloping flag; already broke above two down-sloping flags the current one is more shallow; break above 270 0.00 will open the path to at least 2750.00
  • RSI-14 is within 65 and 50 since 9:00 AM on February 6
  • Above 20-bar EMA which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up-Bounce
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 9:30 PM on Tuesday
  • The band is contracting since Asian session
  • RSI is between 65 and 40 since 00:15 on February 6
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K above 80 after reaching 7.69 at 5:45 AM; is turning down below 80
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday February 6 following on of the largest declines on Monday. Most also made a piercing candlestick pattern. The real body for some, like for Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite, did not come up to the mid-point of Monday’s real body. Volatility was very high and so was the intra-day range. The indices also moved into the positive and negative territories may times.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Heath Care
  9. Telecom
  1. Utility
  2. Real Estate

 

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