Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Wednesday January 10, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower; moving down since 2:00 PM on January 9
  • Below a down trend line from the highs on 30-min chart; emerging head-&-shoulder pattern
  • Emerging up-sloping bear flag on 15-min chart
  • Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2749.25 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • Import Prices (0.1% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Hong Kong closed up
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, France, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are down; U.K., Spain and Italy are up
  •  Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.594% up from January 9 close of 2.546%;
    • 30-years is at 2.944% up from 2.887%
    • 2-years yield is at 1.981% up from 1.977%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.613 up from 0.569

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2745.45, 2737.60 and 2727.92
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2759..03, 2764.04 and 2768.95
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2745.00, the low of 3:30 AM and break below 2737.25, the low of 5:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2753.00 and the index closed at 2751.29 – a spread of about +1.75 points; futures closed at 2752.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -8.50; Dow by -89.00; and NASDAQ by -35.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-to-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-to-Down
  • 15-Min: Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on January 5 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows; the change was +2.6%, which is the largest change since the week closing on November 11 2016, almost thirteen months ago
  • Last week’s pivot point 2722.99; R1=2763.61, R2=2784.08; S1=2702.52, S2=2661.90; R1/R2/R3 were breached; last all 3 resistance levels were breached was the week closing on December 1 and following week ne pivot levels were breached
  • An up week;  fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A doji candle with small upper shadow and smaller lower shadow
  • RSI-14 divergence is nullifying as RSI is almost at the previous high
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
  • Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2752.6; R1=2757.67, R2=2764.04; S1=2746.39; S2=2741.48; R1/R2 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Futures are moving higher since 4:00 PM on December 29 in steps; drifting down since 12:00 PM on January 9; at the previous swing low
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; reasserted on January 3;
  • Below 20-bar EMA, at 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving down since 2:00 PM on January 9;
  • Emerging head-&-shoulder pattern; at the neck near 2736.75
  • RSI-14 declined from a high of 73.3 at 2:00 PM on January 9 to a low of 24.14 at 5:30 AM; it has bounced above 40
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving down 3:00 PM on January 9
  • The band contracted during the Asian session and started to expand at 2:15 AM; price was hugging the lower band till 7:00 AM
  • An up-sloping flag is emerging since 5:45 AM; a break below will also trigger the Head-&-Shoulder pattern mentioned under 30-min chart
  • MFI-14 declined to 7.64 at 3:00 AM it bounced up but could not reach 50; is oscillating between 40 and 20 since then
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K declined to 0 at 5:30 AM; since then it is rising in a zigzag and crossed above 8-0 at 8:15 AM

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday January 9. Market opened higher and made all time highs by mid-day. then they declined and closed near the lows. Russell 2000 was down for the day.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Industrials
  3. Finance
  4. Heath Care
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Technology
  5. Utility
  6. Real Estate

 

Exit mobile version