Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Friday December 15, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 4:30 PM on December 14
  • Odds are for a sideways to up day – watch for break above 2664.75 and break below 2658.25 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data:
    • Empire State Manufacturing Index (18.0 vs. 18.8 est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Capacity Utilization (est. 77.2%) at 9:15 AM
    • Industrial Production (est. 0.3%) at 9:15 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai and Seoul were up
  • European markets are mostly lower – U.K. is higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Palladium
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.346% on December 14 down from December 13 close of 2.349%; 30-years closed at 2.710% down from 2.734%; 2-years yield is at 1.819%; the 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.527 down from 0.534

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2644.10, 2636.97 and 2632.71
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2658.89, 2663.49 and 2671.74
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2664.75, the low of 7:30 AM on December 13 and break below 2658.25, the low of 1:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2655.25 and the index closed at 2652.01 – a spread of about +3.50 points; futures closed at 2656.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.00; Dow by +85.00; and NASDAQ by +18.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-to-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-to-Down
  • 15-Min: Side-to-Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on December 8 was a small red candle with small upper shadow and larger lower shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point 2647.15; R1=2669.54, R2=2687.59; S1=2629.10, S2=2606.71; No levels were breached
  • An up week;  third in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A red almost bearish engulfing; following through of Wednesday’s bearish candle; most of the price action of the day was down
  • RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; on December 12 the index was 2669.72 and RSI was 74.77
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
  • Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2657.37; R1=2662.73, R2=2673.45; S1=2646.65; S2=2641.29; S1/S2 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Futures broke below a support, previous high, at 12:00 PM on Thursday; turning up after making a low at 4:00 PM; still below the broken support, which may become resistance
  • 14-bar RSI diverged and the futures broke below a support and a narrow horizontal channel;
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a horizontal channel – high 2675.50 and low of 2666.25; the 161.8% extension target near 2651.25 was achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 2642.00
  • Futures rising since 4:40 PM on Thursday; at the resistance, 2659.25, the low of 10:30 PM on December 12
  • At a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is below flattening 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Envelop and Bollinger Band moved down from early European session to early Asian session on Thursday; since then they are drifting up
  • The Bollinger Band (20 EMA, 2 stddev.) started contracting at 4:030 AM; price tagging the base; contained within the envelop (20 EMA, 0.196%)
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) is falling since 6:00 AM after touching 80; %K crossed below %D

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed down on Thursday December 14. Most made bearish engulfing or similar patterns. Dow Jones Industrial Average made all time highs.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Technology
  7. Utility
  8. Heath Care

 

Exit mobile version