Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Wednesday December 13, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since10:30 PM after declining from 2:30 PM high
  • Odds are for a sideways day, with an up bias – watch for break above 2673.00 and break below 2664.50
  • Key economic data:
    • CPI (0.4% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Core CPI (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
    • FOMC Press Conference at 2:30 PM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo and Mumbai were lower
  • European markets are mostly lower – Spain and Switzerland are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • EUR/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.425% up from December 12 close of 2.403%; 30-years is at 2.796% up from 2.781%; 2-years yield is at 1.811%; the 10Year-2Year spread is at 0.614 up from 0.551

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2659.78, 2652.67 and 2644.10
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2669.72, 2674.48 and 2679.23
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2673.00, the high of 12:00 PM on Tuesday and break below 2664.50, the low of 2:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2667.50 and the index closed at 2664.11 – a spread of about +3.50 points; futures closed at 2667.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.00; Dow by +15.00; and NASDAQ by +20.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-to-Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on December 8 was a small red candle with small upper shadow and larger lower shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point 2647.15; R1=2669.54, R2=2687.59; S1=2629.10, S2=2606.71; No levels were breached
  • An up week;  third in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A small green candle with small upper and smaller lower shadows;
  • RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74; RSI is rising and approaching the previous high
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
  • Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2664.54; R1=2669.29, R2=2674.48; S1=2659.35; S2=2654.60; R1/R2 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Price action similar to that on Tuesday morning; drifting higher since 2:00 AM on December 6 in stairs from near the uptrend line from the lows of November 15; at the all time high
  • 14-bar RSI continues to flash divergence – on December 11 the future was at 2667.75 and the RSI was at 78.15, on December 12 the future was at 2672.25 and the RSI at 76.79
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
  • At/above a rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Price action similar to that on Tuesday morning; near a resistance level, the all time; moving sideways since 4:30 PM on December 11
  • At a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is at a flattening 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Envelop and Bollinger Band are mostly moving sideways since December 10 evening
  • The Bollinger Band (20 EMA, 2 stddev.) started contracting at 7:45 AM; contained within the envelop (20 EMA, 0.196%)
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) is rising after reaching 18.18 at 7:30 AM and %K has crossed above %D
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday December 12. NASADAQ Composite, Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 closed down. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all time highs.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Real Estate
  1. Energy
  2. Technology
  3. Finance

 

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