Drifting lower in steps since 3:00 PM on November 13; new leg down since 4:00 PM on Tuesday
Broken below a horizontal channel with 100% extension target near 2557.50
Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2572.50 for change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
CPI (0.1% vs. 0.1% est.) and Core CPI (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Retail Sales (0.2% vs. 0.0% est.) and Core Retail Sales PPI (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Empire State Manufacturing Index (19.4 vs. 25.5 est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed lower
European markets are lower
Currencies:
Up
Down
EUR/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
Dollar index
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Gold
Silver
Crude Oil
NatGas
Copper
Platinum (unch.)
Palladium
Sugar
Coffee
Cotton
Cocoa
10-yrs yield closed at 2.381% on November 14 down from November 13 close of 2.400%; 30-years closed at 2.839% down from 2.869%
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2572.41, 2566.56 and 2559.94
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2579.66, 2587.66 and 2592.33
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2572.50, the high of 11:00 PM on November 14 and break below 2562.00, the low of 5:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2577.00 and the index closed at 2578.87 – a spread of about 2.00 points; futures closed at 2578.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.00
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -10.50; Dow by -99.00; and NASDAQ by -22.25
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Side-to-Down
30-Min: Side-To-Down
15-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
A spinning top candle with almost equal length upper and lower shadows
Last week’s pivot point 2581.88; R1=2597.44, R2=2612.57; S1=2566.75, S2=2551.19; R1/ and S1 were breached
A down week – first in last five weeks; second in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
A doji harami candle with almost no upper shadow; the daily support is near 2566.00 – low on November 2 as 2566.17,November 9 was 2566.33 and on Tuesday it was 2566.56
RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50
Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
Pivot Point=2575.03; R1=2583.50, R2=2588.13; S1=2570.40, S2=2561.93; S1/S2 were breached
Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Moving gradually down since making a near double top at 8:00 PM on November 8; near a support of 2562.25, the low on November 2 at 10:00 AM
Broken below the lower limit of a horizontal channel / double top – high 2593.50 and low 2579.75; 100% extension is 2566.00 is achieved; the 161.8% extension is near 2557.50, which is the next target and near a support zone around 2550.50;
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; another break below occurred on November 9; another seems to be coming
Below a recently falling 50-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Broken below a horizontal channel – high near 2585.50 and low near 2571.50 – on Tuesday; the bounce back into it did not last and is again below it; the 100% extension target is near 2557.50 and 161.8% extension target is near 2548.75
Below a falling 20-bar EMA, which is below a falling 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Envelop and Bollinger Band are sloping down;
Near the lower bounds of the envelop (20 – 0.247%)
Bouncing up after breaching below lower limit of Bollinger Band (20 – 2 std dev);
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday November 14. Most of the indices made a doji candlestick pattern with little or no upper shadows. This increases the importance of break below past few day’s lows which has been acting as support. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are at or near such support levels. NYSE Composite is breaking below it. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average have broken below it for some time.
