Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Friday November 10, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are down
  • Drifting higher since 4:30 AM
  • Uptrend line since 4:40 AM with 2 touches; also an emerging up sloping flag
  • Odds are for increased volatility; higher chances for a down day; chances for an up day are significant – watch for break above 2580.25 and below 2572.75  for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data:
    • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 100.8) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Mumbai were up
  • European markets are mostly lower – Germany and Italy are up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Silver
    • Coffee
    • Cotton (unch.)
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Copper (unch.)
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.375% up from November 9 close of 2.331%; 30-years is at 2.858% up from 2.806%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2576.46, 2566.33 and 2559.94
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2586.48, 2592.33 and 2597.02
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2580.25, the low of 6:30 PM on November 8 and break below 2572.75, the low of 7:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2582.00 and the index closed at 2584.62 – a spread of about 2.75 points; futures closed at 2584.00 for the day; the fair value is -2.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -6.50; Dow by -20.00; and NASDAQ by -14.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-to-Down
  • 15-Min: Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A shaved top doji candle with lower shadow almost equal to real body
  • Last week’s pivot point 2580.81; R1=2595.45, R2=2603.06; S1=2573.20, S2=2558.56; No levels were breached weeks
  • An up week – eighth in last five weeks; ninth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A dragonfly pattern; RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.5
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2579.15; R1=2591.97, R2=2599.32; S1=2571.80, S2=2558.98; S1/S2/S3 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting down since the high of 2594.50 at 8:00 PM on Wednesday; a double top forming; broke below prior low and the bounce found resistance at 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA; drifting down since midnight
  • Broken below an uptrend line since the low of 2541.50 at 12:00 PM on October 25;
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; another break below occurred
  • Below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Declining since 12:00 midnight following 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the sharp decline on November 9
  • Thursday
  • 8:30 PM on November 8; got rejected at 20-bar EMA at 2:30 AM;
  • Broken below the lower limit of a horizontal channel / double top – high 2593.50 and low 2579.75; 100% extension is near 2566.00 is achieved, it was also near an intermediate support zone; the 161.8% extension is near 257.50, which is the next target and near a support zone around 2550.50
  • Below a falling 20-bar EMA, which is below a falling 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Downtrend since 9:00 PM n November 8
  • Bouncing off after a breach of the lower bounds of the envelop (20 – 17%) and Bollinger Band (20 – 2 std dev); near 20-bar EMA, which is acting as a resistance since midnight
  • Below a falling 20-bar EMA, which is below a falling 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday November 9. The day’s range was large and at the lows the indices were down 0.9% to 1.5%. The bounce started id-day and recovered a major part of decline. At the end of the day, most indices made either a dragonfly doji or a hammer pattern. Dow Jones Transportation Average continued its fall. Break over either extremes – high or low – will be critical in giving clues for net few day’s market direction.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Utility
  4. Heath Care
  5. Real Estate (unch.)
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Materials
  3. Industrials
  4. Finance
  5. Technology

 

Exit mobile version