Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Wednesday October 11, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower
  • Drifting mostly lower since 4:00 PM on October 10
  • Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2549.75 and below 2542.75 for change of fortunes
  • No key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher  – Hong Kong and Mumbai were down
  • European markets are mostly up – U.K. and France are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Coffee
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.345% on October 10 down from October 9 close of 2.361%; 30-years closed at 2.881% down from 2.894%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2544.86, 2540.02 and 2535.37
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2555.23, 2560.61 and 2566.00
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2547.50, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2544.25, the low of 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2549.00 and the index closed at 2550.64 – a spread of about 1.75 points; futures closed at 2548.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.00; Dow by -6.00; and NASDAQ by -7.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A green candle hat is breaking away from previous one
  • Last week’s pivot point 2540.75; R1=2561.09, R2=2572.86; S1=2528.98, S2=2508.64; R1/R2 ere breached; R1 has been breached for four weeks and R2 for two; support levels were breached only once in seven weeks, which was during the week ending on September 29
  • An up week – fourth in last five weeks; seventh in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A doji following a bearish engulfing of a small harami doji candle
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2550.24; R1=2555.63, R2=2560.61; S1=2545.26, S2=2539.87; R1 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • In the middle of horizontal channel – high 2550.75 and low 2541.50 – after briefly breaching the upper limit following a breach of lower limit on Monday, which followed a touch with the upper limit
  • At 10:00 AM on September 29, broke above a horizontal channel – high 2506.00 and low 2487.50 – 100% extension target near 2524.50 is achieved; 161.8% extension target, near 2536.00, is also achieved; 200% extension, near 2544.00, is also achieved; 261.8% extension is near 2555.00
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
  • At/below rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Drifting mostly sideways to down since 4:00 PM on October 10
  • Up trend since the of low of 2485.00 at  11:00 AM on September 25;
  • Below a flattening 20-bar EMA, which is at/below a flattening 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices advanced on Tuesday October 10. S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made near doji like pattern. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASAQ Composite made all time high but only DJIA closed at one.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Technology
  7. Utility
  8. Heath Care
  9. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary

 

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