Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Friday September 15, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower
  • Moving sideways since 12:30 PM on September 11
  • Odds are for a sideways day – watch for break above 2496.25 and below 2487.00 for a change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • Retail Sales (-0.2% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Core Retail Sales (0.2% vs. 0.5% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Empire State Manufacturing (24.4 vs. 18.2 est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Capacity Utilization (76.1% vs. 76.8% est.) at 9:15 AM
    • Industrial Production (-0.9% vs. 0.1% est.) at 9:15 AM
    • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 95.1) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai and Sydney closed down; Hong Kong, Tokyo, Mumbai and Seoul closed up; the intra-day trend matched the days close except for Hong Kong
  • European markets are lower; intra-day trend is sideways for DAX and FTSEMIB-MIL (Italy) and down for others
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Sugar
    • Gold
    • Palladium
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.185% down from September 14 close of 2.197%; 30-years is at 2.759% down from 2.781%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2491.35, 2486.17 and 2480.99
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2498.43, 2502.21 and 2506.00
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2493.75, the high of 5:00 AM and break below 2487.00, the low of 6:00 PM on September 14

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2494.50 and the index closed at 2495.62 – a spread of about 1.00 points; futures closed at 2494.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.25; Dow by -16.00; and NASDAQ by -7.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up-to-Side
  • Daily: Up-to-Side
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A red harami candle within a large green candle for the week ending on Friday September 8; almost 1.2% below all time high of 2490.87 reached during the week ending on August 11
  • Last week’s pivot point 2459.98; R1=2473.42, R2=2485.40; S1=2448.00, S2=2434.56; none of the resistance or support levels were breached
  • A down week – third in last five weeks; fourth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Bouncing off 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
Daily
  • A small harami doji candle just above Monday’s large green candle; three consecutive days of narrow range candles
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is nullified when price broke below 2430.00; however, the index was below 2430.00 for only one day and the pattern may be revived
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2495.13; R1=2498.92, R2=2502.21; S1=2491.84, S2=2488.05; S1 was breached
  • Uptrend under pressure; mostly moving sideways since June 2 between 2490.00 and 2410.00; trying to break up for the past few days
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Futures moving higher since 12:00 PM on September 11; between high near 2495.00 and low near 2487.00
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
  • At flat 20-bar EMA, which is above flattening 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Side ways move since 12:30 PM on September 11; a downward bias since 6:00 PM on September 12
  • High highs and higher lows, with couple of exceptions, since 5:00 AM on August 29
  • At flat 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA with down bias

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Thursday September 14 but most made another all time intra-day high. $VIX also closed down. The daily price range for the last 3 days has been very narrow.

Dow Transportation Average and Russell 2000 are still off their all time highs reached in July.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Materials
  3. Industrials
  4. Utility
  5. Heath Care
  6. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Finance
  4. Technology

 

Exit mobile version