Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Monday September 26, 2016

Sunil Sharma

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The futures are sharply down
  • Odds are high for a down day
  • S&P 500 has been down 7 out of last 8 years during the final five days of Q3
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2155 for bulls and break below 2131 for bears
  • Markets in the East were mostly down – Australia was unchanged
  • European markets are sharply down
  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Dec contract) closed at 2157.25 and the index closed at 2164.69 – a spread of about 7.50 points

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2154.61, 2151.41 and 2139.57
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2166.07, 2170.97 and 2177.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side; at 9:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -9.50, Dow by -94.00 and NASDAQ by -27.25

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
Weekly:
  • Current uptrend under pressure
  • Fallen below an up-trending 10-week SMA
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
  • Last swing low, 1991.68, was reached on June 27, 2016
Daily
  • Uptrend remains under pressure
  • Friday started the Thursday gap fill
  • Price back to the lower bound of the rectangle trading range that was once broken on September 9
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Finding resistance at the upper limit of the gap-down following September 8 close at 6:00 PM
  • Sequence of Higher high and higher lows since 10:00 PM on September 22 is in danger of breaking; critical level 2131.50
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Continuous decline since the high made at 10:30 AM on September 22
  • At 76.8% retracement of the rally from September 21 low of 2126.25 to September 22 high of 2172.75

Before NYSE Session Open

Friday maintained it extended its streak of down Fridays to six out of last seven Fridays.

All major U.S. indices were down and filling gap created a day earlier.

For the week, all major U.S. indices, Asian bourses and European exchanges were up. But, only U.S. market were up week before the last week.

 

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