Market Remarks

Market Diary – Thursday July 28, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • Greater likelihood of a range bound day
  • The 4-Hour chart of S&P 500 future is still showing a narrow rectangle trading range since July 13th, bounded between 2173 and 2153
  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2159.07, 2155.79 and 2146.21
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2174.94, 2182.79 and 2190.59
  • Early morning futures price action is indecisive; at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 future was down by -1.00, Dow is down by -21.00 and NASDAQ is down by -4.25

Before NYSE Session Open

Major US indices were again range bound on Tuesday. S&P 500 is in a narrow range. NASDAQ seems to be breaking above the resistance and Russell 2000 I close behind. Dow Jones Industrial Averages is declining slightly after making an evening-star pattern few days ago. It could still turn out to be a flag.

S&P 500 fell at the start and then rose before closing the day with -2.20 loss.. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s action was similar and it closed down -1.58 points. NASDAQ Composite gapped up at the start and then tested the gap but did not fill. It closed up by +29.76 but still below the open. Russell 2000 gained +2.07 o +0.2% but closed near the open.

Asian Session

The Asian bourses were mixed on Thursday.

  • Shanghai Composite was up by +2.32 or +0.08% to 2991.32
  • Hang Seng was down -44.65 or -0.20% to 22174.34
  • Nikkei 225 lost -187.98 or -1.13% to 16476.84
  • Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gained +16.9 or +0.31% to 5556.60
  • Sensex was up by +184.29 or +0.66% to 28208.62
  • South Korea’s KOSPI was down by -3.95 or -0.20%

European Session

In pre-US session, the European stock markets are mostly down.

  • DAX is down by -3.64 or -0.04% to 10315.91
  • FTSE-100 is down by -11.48 or -0.17% to 6738.95
  • CAC-40 is down by -0.81% to 4443.99
  • Spanish IBEX is down by -1.49% to 8532.90
  • Italian FTSE MIB is down by -1.19% to 16662.98
  • Swiss SMI-SWX is down by -0.88% to 8149.31
  • STOXX-600 is down -0.43% to 341.26

Currencies

  • U.S. Dollar index is down by -0.547 to 96.495
  • EUR/USD is up by +40.0 pips to 1.10945
  • GBP/USD is down by -671.00 pips to 1.3144
  • USD/JPY is down by -40.4 pips (Yen is stronger) to 104.889

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is down by -0.07 or -0.17% to 41.85; Natural Gas is up by +0.019 or +0.75% to 2.680
  • Gold is up by +13.80 or +1.04% to 1340.40; Silver is up by +0.137 or +1.03% to 20.360
  • Copper is up by +0.029 or +1.33% to 2.214

Yields

  • U.S. Treasury yields are up for the day so far
  • 30-year yield is up +2.2 basis points to 2.25% and 10-year is up by +1.7 basis points to 1.532%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA crossed above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

S&P 500 Cash eMini Futures
 Daily Level Break
Chance
Level Break
Chance
Pivot 2166.88 2160.58
R1 2174.68 61% 2169.17 56%
R2 2182.79 42% 2177.83 32%
R1 2190.59 48% 2186.42 26%
S1 2158.77 36% 2151.92 36%
S2 2150.97 33% 2143.33 24%
S3 2142.86 23% 2134.67 23%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3

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