Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM; down more than 45 points since 3:30 AM; broke below an upsloping flag at 8:00 AM – the 61.8% extension target is near 3881.00, and the 100% extension target is ear 3865.00
• The odds are for a down with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 3906.75 and 3916.50
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Building Permits ( 1.52M vs., 1.50M est.; prev. 1.40M) at 8:30 AM
  • Housing Starts ( 1.58M vs. 1.45M est.; prev. 1.40M ) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure Daily: Correction 120-Min: Down

30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Side-Down 6-Min:  Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3863.00, 3854.71, and 3838.50
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3886.68, 3900.45, and 3909.00
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3906.75, the high of 7:15 AM and a break below 3885.25, the low of 8:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 3918.75, and the index closed at 3899.89 – a spread of about +18.75 points; the futures closed at 3917.25; the fair value is +1.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -24.75, Dow by -187, and NASDAQ by -82.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CAD	Dollar index GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.559%, up +21.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.580%, up +9.8 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.959%, up +44.6 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.400, down from -0.173
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.021, down from 0.142
• VIX
  • At 26.28 @ 7:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 29.06 on July 13; low = 21.67 on August 26
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on September 16 was a Bearish Engulfing candle with small upper and lower shadows; Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below %D; near ten RSI-9 is just above 40 The week was down -282.20 or -4.8%; the 5-week ATR  is 181.0 A down week; fourth in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3943.23, R1=4049.38, R2=4225.43; S1=3767.18, S2=3661.03; S1 pivot level was breached Below 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A Bullish Engulfing candle following Hammer Doji at a resistance formed by the upper bound of the down-gap created on September 16 Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D from below ten RSI-9 is just below 40; below 8-day EMA; Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Trending down with lower lows and lower highs RSI-21 is declining since 6:00 PM from near 70 Below EMA20, which is Below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Declining since 3:00 AM; broke below a Double Top pattern at 3:30 AM – came near the 261.8% extension target around 3880.00 RSI-21 is around 40 Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 3:30 AM The Bollinger Band is expanding with price walking down the lower band Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, September 19, in lower volume. The major indices opened lower but then moved higher. They moved sideways for the after first half hour of trading for most of the day before breaking above the trading range near the end of the session. Most indices made Bullish Engulfing candlesticks.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The main indices danced around the unchanged mark for most of the afternoon before catching a bid in the final hour of trade, helped primarily by an uptick in the mega cap stocks and other issues. The S&P 500 broke out of a narrow trading range but found resistance at the 3,900 level, closing a whisker shy of that important level. […] The 2-yr and 10-yr note yields reached their highest levels since 2007 and 2011, respectively. The 2-yr note yield reached 3.97% before settling at 3.94% and the 10-yr note yield reached 3.51% before settling at 3.49%. […] Decliners outpaced advancers by a 4-to-3 margin at the Nasdaq while advancers led decliners by a roughly 3-to-2 margin at the NYSE. Only two S&P 500 sectors closed with a loss, health care (-0.5%) and real estate (-0.2%). The gainers were led by materials (+1.6%) and consumer discretionary (+1.3%). […] Today’s economic data was limited to the September NAHB Housing Market Index, which came in at 46 (Briefing.com consensus 48) after the prior reading of 49. A number below 50 for this report is indicative of declining confidence. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -14.6% YTD S&P 400: -15.2% YTD S&P 500: -18.2% YTD Russell 2000: -19.3% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -26.3% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.5%, FTSE market closed, CAC -0.3% Asia: Nikkei market closed, Hang Seng -1.0%, Shanghai -0.4% Commodities:  Crude Oil -0.44 @ 84.96 Nat Gas +0.01 @ 7.81 Gold -3.40 @ 1680.30 Silver -0.05 @ 19.42 Copper -0.02 @ 3.51