Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower at 8:30 AM; moving lower since 6:00 PM on Sunday
- The odds are for a down day – watch for a break above 4455.00 for a change of sentiments
- Key economic data report due during the day:
- Industrial Production ( 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 9:15 AM
- Capacity Utilization ( 76.6% est.; prev. 76.4%) at 9:15 AM
- NAHB Housing Market Index ( 75 est. prev. 76) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4457.79, 4447.69, and 4430.28
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4467.17, 4475.82, and 4485.87
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4455.00, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 4441.00, the low of 6:15 AM
- On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2021) closed at 4463.25 and the index closed at 4471.37 – a spread of about -8.25 points; futures closed at 4462.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -14.50; Dow by -130; and NASDAQ by -38.50
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Seoul, and Singapore closed lower; Hong Kong, Sydney, and Mumbai closed up
- European markets are lower
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Dollar index
- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals higher
- Soft commodities are mostly lower
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- 10-years yield closed at 1.576%, up +11.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
- 30-years is at 2.051%, up +1.2 basis points;
- 2-years yield is at 0.395%, up +12.5 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.181, up from 1.195
- At 17.56 @ 6:30 AM; up from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 24.89 on October 1; low = 17.63 on September 24
- Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (E-mini futures)||
|30-Minute (E-mini futures)||
|15-Minute (E-mini futures)||
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Friday, October 15, in mixed volume. Russell 2000 closed lower. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. Most indices gapped up at the open and then did not close the gap.
For the week, major US indices closed higher in mixed volume. All but one S&P sector – Communications Services – closed higher for the week. Most Asian markets closed up – Shanghai was down. European markets were up. The dollar index closed up, energy futures were mixed, precious metals and industrial metals were up, and soft commodities were mixed. The US Treasury yields inched down for the week.
The S&P 500 gained 0.8% on Friday, […]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite increased just 0.5% and the Russell 2000 fell 0.4%.[…]
Notably, the 10-yr yield rose six basis points to 1.58%,[…]
The 2-yr yield rose five basis points to 0.40%. The U.S. Dollar Index finished little changed at 93.94. WTI crude futures rose 1.2%, or $0.98, to $82.26/bbl.[..]
- Total retail sales in September were up 0.7% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.9% increase (from 0.7%) in August. Excluding autos, retail sales jumped 0.8% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) following an upwardly revised 2.0% increase (from 1.8%) in August.
- The preliminary October University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 71.4 (Briefing.com consensus 73.5) from the final reading of 72.8 for September, leaving it pinned near the lows that were registered last year following the shutdown of the economy to combat the spread of COVID.
- Business inventories increased 0.6% m/m in August (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase (from +0.5%) in July.
- Import prices increased 0.4% in September after decreasing 0.3% in August. Excluding oil, import prices were flat after decreasing 0.1% in August. Export prices increased 0.1% after increasing 0.4% in August. Excluding agriculture, export prices increased 0.3% after increasing a revised 0.3% (from 0.2%) in August.
- S&P 500 +19.0% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +15.6% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +15.3% YTD
- Russell 2000 +14.7% YTD