Short Notes On Economy And Inflation

Economy The Real GDP continues its uptrend since bottoming in Feb-2009 (Chart 1). The Total Employment and Real Retail and Food Services Sales have also maintained their uptrend during this period. The Unemployment Rate has maintained down trend. Industrial production rose from Jun-2009 to Dec-2014. It then declined till Mar-2016. Since then it has resumed…

Morning Notes – Monday July 31, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher Moving up sharply at European open Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2470.75 for a change of fortunes Key economic data due: Chicago PMI (est. 60.8) at 9:45 AM Pending Home Sales (est. 0.9%) at 10:00 AM Markets Around The World Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo was higher European markets…

Morning Notes – Friday July 28, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower Moving up since 6:30 AM Near resistance near 2467.25 Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2467.25 for a change of fortunes Key economic data due: Advanced GDP (est. 2.5%), Advance GDP Price Index (est. 1.3%) at 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index (est. 0.6%) at 8:30 AM Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (est.…

Morning Notes – Thursday July 27, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher Moving up since 3:30 PM on July 26; made triple top at 3:00 AM Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2476.50 for signs for a change of fortunes Key economic data due: Durable Goods (est. 3.5%) and Core Durable Good (est. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM Unemployment Claims (est.…

Economic, Fundamental and Monetary Environment

Economy The U.S. economy is humming along. The pace of growth is not brisk or very satisfactory but it is also not alarming. The real GDP, total non-farm payroll and retail sales are maintaining their growth trajectory. The unemployment level continues to decline and the industrial production has seemingly arrested it decline and is levelling off…

Morning Notes – Wednesday July 26, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher Moving up since 0:00 AM Early morning earnings are mostly above estimates Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2475.50 for signs for a change of fortunes Key economic data due: New Home Sales (est. 615K) at 10:00 AM FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate at 2:00 PM Markets Around…

Morning Notes – Tuesday July 25, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher Moving up since 3:00 AM Earnings are primary driver Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2470.25 for signs for a change of fortunes Key economic data due: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (est. 116.5) at 10:00 AM Markets Around The World Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Tokyo, Mumbai and Seoul…

Morning Notes – Monday July 24, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are little changed to lower Below a downtrend line from July 20 high breaking above a descending triangle forming since 8:00 Am on July 21; double low near 2463.75; break above 2467.50 will have a target net 2474.50 Odds are for a sideways day with no clear direction – watch for break above…

Morning Notes – Friday July 21, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are little changed to lower Drifting lower since making a high of 2475.25 at 5:00 AM Odds are for a sideways to down day; watch for break above 2475.25 for a change of fortunes; No Key economic data due: Markets Around The World Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai and Seoul were up European markets are lower…

Morning Notes – Thursday July 20, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are little changed to higher Drifting sideways since 7:00 PM on July 19 Breaking above 4:00 AM high of 2474.00 Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2469.25 for a change of fortunes; Key economic data due: Unemployment claims (est. 245K) at 8:30 AM Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (est. 23.4) at 8:30 AM ECB Press…