Markets Persist With Upward Bias

U.E. Equity Markets The week of September 18, 2017 was mostly a positive week for the U.S. equity markets. NASDAQ Composite declined but other major indices advanced. Four S&P 500 sectors – Energy, Materials, Industrials and Finance – also advanced. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have been up for six months and had…

Monthly Bias In Equity Markets

An analysis of daily price change since 1973 tells us that there are some certain seasonal biases in the market. Major U.S. indices show a greater probability of advancing in some months as compared to others. There are many reasons for seasonal or monthly bias in equity market. We will review some of them in future posts. The…

Is It The Much Awaited Reversal?

One Day Reversal Candlestick With Bearish Divergence Major U.S. indices closed down on Tuesday August 8 2017 after S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all time intra-day highs. They also closed in the lower half of the day’s range. This does constitute as one-day reversal candlestick…

Equities Doing Better Than Other Asset Classes

The intermarket analysis says that it is still better to be invested in equities and bonds than in commodities and U.S. dollar. Equites and Bonds are Rising The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bonds, $USB, declined from July 2016 to March 2017 (First Panel Chart 1). It made double bottom near 147.00-146.00 level in December 2016 and…

Analyzing Major U.S. Indices

Major U.S. indices are trending higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite are leading the overall market. Small caps mostly lagging. Relative Strength From the beginning of 2017, Dow Jones Industrial Average was performing similar to S&P 500. Since the middle of July 2017, DJIA is out-performing S&P 500 (Top Panel Chart 1). Since November 2016,…

S&P 500: 65 Thousand Feet View

Monthly Chart Analysis Current Status: Last Update on Tuesday August 01, 2017   Current Trend: Confirmed Uptrend Last Pattern: Double Bottom (or horizontal Channel) (broken out in July 2016) Previous Pattern: Rectangle (broken in Apr-13) Current Streak: 4 Up months Last Six Months 5 Up months Last High 2484.04 (Jul-17) High Month Low Month Last Swing 2193.81 Aug-16 2083.79…

Short Notes On Economy And Inflation

Economy The Real GDP continues its uptrend since bottoming in Feb-2009 (Chart 1). The Total Employment and Real Retail and Food Services Sales have also maintained their uptrend during this period. The Unemployment Rate has maintained down trend. Industrial production rose from Jun-2009 to Dec-2014. It then declined till Mar-2016. Since then it has resumed…

Economic, Fundamental and Monetary Environment

Economy The U.S. economy is humming along. The pace of growth is not brisk or very satisfactory but it is also not alarming. The real GDP, total non-farm payroll and retail sales are maintaining their growth trajectory. The unemployment level continues to decline and the industrial production has seemingly arrested it decline and is levelling off…