Ending the 2023 With A Bang By the end of 2022, the year-over-year change in the Personal Consumption Expenditure index was 5.9 percent and the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge which excluded food and energy, inflated by 4.4 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and the real GDP growth was 2.6 percent.…
Ahead of the FOMC’s September 20, 2023 meeting, rate decisions, and subsequent press conference, various market indices are at critical junctures. The market is betting heavily on the Fed holding the rate at 5.50%, so the indecision shown by the indices is due to uncertainty about the larger picture. It is possible that the FOMC’s…
The S&P 500 is trending up since bottoming on October 13, 2022. It has cleared a few critical resistance levels and broken above bullish chart patterns since then. The probability is high that the upswing will go on for some time. Monthly Timeframe Fig 1. tells a good story of the S&P 500. The logarithmic…
“Bank on the trends, and don’t worry about the tremors. Keep your mind on long-term cycles and ignore the sporadic ups and downs …” — J. Paul Getty (as said to him by a successful financier)[1]J. Paul Getty, How To Be Rich Secular markets or secular cycles in an asset class are driven by strong…
On Wednesday, July 27, 2022, the FOMC raised the Fed Funds rate for the fourth time this year. The next day, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that the 2022 Second Quarter GDP declined by 0.9%. Finally, to close out the week, the BEA reported that the Core PCE rose by 4.8% from a…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Futures bounced up from a low of 5173.50 before the release of the PPI report at 8:30 AM to above 5210.00. The futures are within a trading range between 5173.5 and 5226.50 since 8:45 AM on Wednesday. The odds are for a sideways…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures have been moving sideways to up since 4:00 PM between 5272.00 and 5257.75. Futures markets are awaiting the CPI report at 8:30 AM. The odds are for a sideways move with elevated volatility. Watch for a break above 5274.25 or a break below 5257.0 for clarity. The major…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures have been moving higher since 6:30 AM from a sideways move. Up more than 25 points. The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break below 5246.00 for a change of sentiments. No major economic data report is due during the day: Weekly:…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures have been drifting higher since 8:30 PM forming an upsloping flag within a downtrend – a bearish chart pattern. The odds are for a volatile day with a higher probability of a down day. Watch for the reaction to the Non-Farm Payroll report at 8:30 AM. The major…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures have been drifting higher since 6:30 PM. The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 5274.25 and 5267.75 for a change of sentiments. The major economic data report due during the day: Unemployment Claims (213K est.; prev. 210K) at 8:30 AM. Trade Balance…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are moving within a trading range between 4263.25 and 4246.50 since Tuesday’s NYSE close. The odds are for a sideways day – watch for a break above 5263.25 or a break below 5246.50 for clarity. The major economic data report due during the day: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. Broke below support levels at 5282.25 at 6:30 AM after moving within a horizontal channel since Monday morning. At 8:30 AM futures broke below another support level at 5263.00. The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. The futures have moved down by more than ten points since 7:00 AM following the release of PPI data. The odds are for a sideways to a down day from pre-open levels around 5240.00 – watch for a break above 5253.50 and a…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. The futures are moving between 5246.75 and 5235.00 since 3:00 PM on Tuesday. The odds are for a sideways to a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 5246.75 and a break below 5235.00 for clarity. No major economic…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM. The futures first dropped 20 points following the CPI data release at 8:30 AM only to bounce up by more than 40 points within minutes. The odds are for an up day with increased volatility – watch for a break below 5200.00 for…
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