Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for break below 3048.25 for change of sentiments
• Key economic data due:
  • Import Prices (1.0% vs. 0.6% est.; prev. -2.6%) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 7.00 est.; prev. 72.3) at 10:00 AM
  • Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations ( prev. 3.2%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend since March 23 Daily: Uptrend since March 23 120-Min: Up-Side

30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Down-Side 6-Min: Down-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3023.93, 2999.49 and 2969.75
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3090.41, 3123.53 and 3130.94
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3081.25, the higher of 11:00 AM on Thursday and break below 3048.50, the low of 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2020) closed at 3003.50 and the index closed at 3002.10. – a spread of about +1.50 points; futures closed at 3010.25 for the day; the fair value is -6.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +53.25; Dow by +487 and NASDAQ by +145.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai was up
• European markets are higher
• Currencies:
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD	GBP/USD USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities:
  

  Up	Down
  Crude Oil Gold Copper Platinum Palladium Coffee Cocoa	NatGas Silver Sugar Cotton

• Bond
  • 10-yrs yield is at 0.700%, up from June 11 close of 0.653%;
  • 30-years is at 1.457%, up from 1.401%
  • 2-years yield is at 0.193% down from 0.201%
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.509 up from 0.452
• VIX
  • Is at 37.62; down -3.17 from June 11 close; above 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high 39.28 on May 14; low 23.54 on June 5
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	Uptrend under pressure May 2020 was a green candle with small upper shadow and a lower shadows that was one third of the real body; Stochastic %K is above %D and above 60; %K Bearish Divergence in January RSI-9 turning up after declining to 34.91, the lowest level since April 2009, from above 75 in January and Bearish Divergence Regaining the middle band of the 120-month regression channel after only third break of channel since 2009 and first close below it Sequence of higher highs and higher lows broken
Weekly:	The week ending on May 29 was a green spinning top candle breaking away from a congestion area; Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; above 90 RSI (9) is above 50 The week was up +88.86 or +3.0%; the 5-week ATR is 135.31 The weekly week pivot point =3027.58, R1=3085.40, R2=3126.50; S1=2986.48, S2=2928.66; R1/R2/R2 pivot level were breached An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks All time high of 3393.52, the last swing high, was during the week of February 17; broke below the low of the week of December 24, 2018; support near 2193.81, the high during the week of August 15, 2016; sequence of higher highs and higher lows broken Above 10-week EMA; at/below 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA Uptrend since March 23
Daily	A large red candle that gapped down; with almost no upper and lower shadows; retracing from a resistance level %K is below %D near 0; RSI-9 declined to near 40 from above 80; below 8-day RSI; Below 20-day EMA; at/above 200-day SMA, above 50-day EMA and 100-day Uptrend since March 23
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Bouncing up from a support near 3000.00 to near 3050.00 after declining from 3228.75, the high made on June 8 RSI-21 rising from near 10 to above 40 %K is above %D Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Rising since 6:00 PM from a support zone near 3000.00 to EMA20 and EMA50 near 3060.00 RSI-21 has risen from below 20 to near 50 %K is below %D; At/below EMA10 of EMA50, which is above EMA20 Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) moving up since 8:30 PM The Bollinger Band was relative stable, from 8:30 PM to 4:30 AM; expanding since Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed sharply lower on Thursday, June 11 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. Indices opened down with a gap and then traded lower, closing mostly near day’s lows.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 dropped 5.9% on Thursday, pulling back noticeably from an overheated market condition. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-6.9%) and Russell 2000 (-7.6%) underperformed the benchmark index, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 5.3%.

[…]

Energy stocks were additionally burdened by the 8% drop in oil prices ($36.41/bbl, -3.13, -7.9%), while those in the financials sector (-8.2%) were pressured by some curve-flattening activity.

[…]

The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 0.16%, while the 10-yr yield declined ten basis points to 0.65% as investors sought some safety in longer-dated maturities. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.8% to 96.76.

[…]

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6 decreased by 355,000 to a still-high 1.542 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.525 million) while continuing claims for the week ending May 30 decreased by 339,000 to a still stunningly high 20.929 million.
o The key takeaway from this report is that, notwithstanding the hiring activity in May, it shows the labor market remains a long, long way from being back.
• The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4% m/m in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%). The index for final demand, excluding food and energy, declined 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%). Those readings left the yr/yr rates at -0.8% and 0.3%, respectively.
o The key takeaway from this report is that it shows why the Fed isn’t thinking about raising rates anytime soon.