Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; rising since making a near double bottom at 8:30 PM
- The odds are for an up to sideways day; watch for break below 3098.25 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index ( 10.4 vs. 7.0 est.; prev. 5.6) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (227K vs. 215K est. ; prev. 225K) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3102.45, 3091.41 and 3082.26
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3111.56, 3118.97 and 3125.16
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3118.50, the high of 10:30 AM on November 20 and break below 3105.50, the low of 7:00 AM
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 3108.25 and the index closed at 3108.46 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 3109.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.00; Dow by +33 and NASDAQ by +9.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed lower;
- European markets are mostly lower – Italy is up
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 1.738%, down from November 19 close of 1.786%;
- 30-years is at 2.203%, down from 2.255%
- 2-years yield is at 1.577%, down from 1.590%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.161 down from 0.196
- Is at 12.81 up from November 20 close of 12.78; above 5-day SMA
- Recent high was 13.95 on October 31; recent low was 11.92 on November 15
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, November 20 in higher volume. Indices were under pressure from the get go and then declined sharply mid-day before bouncing from the lows in the afternoon. Most made small red real body with almost no upper shadow and long lower shadow.
The S&P 500 declined as much as 0.9% on Wednesday after Reuters reported that a Phase One trade deal may not get completed this year. Stocks cut losses throughout the afternoon, leaving the benchmark index down 0.4% for the session — comparable to the losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%), and Russell 2000 (-0.4%).
The trade-sensitive areas of the market like the S&P 500 materials (-1.2%), industrials (-0.8%), and information technology (-0.7%) sectors led the decline. The communication services sector (-0.8%), which contains many growth-oriented stocks, also underperformed.
Leading the afternoon comeback was the energy sector (+1.0%), which found reprieve amid a 3% rebound in oil prices ($56.91, +1.70, +3.1%). The defensive-oriented utilities (+0.6%), consumer staples (+0.2%), and real estate (+0.03%) sectors also finished in positive territory.
U.S. Treasuries continued to benefit from a defensive mindset, which sent yields lower in a curve-flattening trade. The 2-yr yield declined two basis points to 1.57%, and the 10-yr yield declined five basis points to 1.74%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 97.91.