Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; drifting higher since 4:40 PM on Friday in an upsloping flag, which is usually bearish
- The odds are for a sideways to down day from pre-open levels – watch for break above 3001.00 for change of fortune
- No key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed lower
- European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is down
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.048%, up from July 18 close of 2.038%;
- 30-years is at 2.578%, up from 2.568%
- 2-years yield is at 1.826%, up from 1.752%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.222, down from 0.286
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2973.09, 2963.44 and 2955.92
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2987.37, 3000.00 and 3006.02
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2988.25, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2979.00, the low of 3:30 AM
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2979.75 and the index closed at 2976.61 – a spread of about +1.00 points; futures closed at 2977.00 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.50; Dow by +69 and NASDAQ by +38.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend resumed
- Daily: Uptrend
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Down-Up
- 6-Min: Side-Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Friday, July 19 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded higher in lower volume. The indices mostly declined during the day. Dow Jones Industrial Average resisted the downward pressure for a while but gave up midday.
For the week, indices declined in mostly higher volume. DJIA traded in lower volume for the week. All but two S&P sectors – Staples and Materials – declined for the week.
The S&P 500 faded into the close and lost 0.6% on Friday, as geopolitical angst and expectations for a smaller Fed rate cut weighed on the broader market. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.7%, and the Russell 2000 lost 0.5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) fared slightly better, supported by shares of Boeing (BA 377.36, +16.25, +4.5%) after it announced a $4.9 billion charge for its 737 MAX grounding.
Price action for most of the day had been muted until Iran said it seized a British oil tanker and The Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed is signaling a 25-basis points rate cut at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting.[…]
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the implied likelihood for the quarter-point cut climbed to 77.5% from 39.8% yesterday.[…]
• The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July checked in at 98.4 (Briefing.com consensus 98.9) versus the final reading of 98.2 for June.
o The key takeaway from the report is the finding that consumers’ expectations fall as their inflation expectations rise, so it will be assumed for the time being that consumer expectations will remain elevated since their one-year inflation expectations dipped from 2.7% to 2.6%.