Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are down; moving sideways to down since the close on Monday
- The odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2945.50 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (3.0% vs. 3.7% est. ; prev. 3.5%) at 9:00 AM
- Chicago PMI (est. 59.1); prev. 58.7) at 9:45 AM
- CB Consumer Confidence (est. 126.2; prev. 124.1) at 10:00 AM
- Pending Home Sales (est. 1.1% prev. -1.0% ) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly down – Shanghai was up; Tokyo was closed for trading
- European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K., France and STOX 600 are down; Spain, Italy and Switzerland are up
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.545%, up from April 29 close of 2.536%;
- 30-years is at 2.968%, up from 2.965%
- 2-years yield is at 2.306%, up from 2.294%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.235, down from 0.242
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2939.35, 2926.64 and 2923.68
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2949.52, 2954.14 and 2958.75
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2945.50, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2935.75, the low of 9:30 PM on Monday
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2945.00 and the index closed at 2943.03 – a spread of about +2.00 points; futures closed at 2943.00 for the day; the fair value is +2.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are mixed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -3.75; Dow up by +36 and NASDAQ down by -28.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday, April 29 in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed down and S&P 500 traded in higher volume. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite made all time highs. Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index and DJIA closed near its all time high.
The S&P 500 (+0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) both set new closing, and intraday, records on Monday. It was a tight-ranged session, but positive economic data and the outperformance of the financial and communication services stocks helped maintain the market’s bullish bias.
The Russell 2000 increased 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.04%) finished fractionally higher.
The latest personal income and spending data helped advance the narrative that the U.S. economy seems to be benefiting still from solid consumer spending activity and muted inflation pressures.
Personal spending jumped 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%) in March. The PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was up 1.5% yr/yr in March while the core PCE Price Index was up 1.6% yr/yr in March — both below the Fed’s annual inflation target of 2.0%.
At the same time, the outperformance of the S&P 500 financials (+0.9%) and communication services (+0.9%) sectors helped keep the broader market afloat.
On the other hand, the rate-sensitive real estate (-1.1%) and utilities (-0.6%) sectors showed some weakness amid the uptick in yields.
The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield increased three basis points each to 2.30% and 2.54%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.2% to 97.87. WTI crude increased 0.4% to $63.44/bbl.
• Briefly, personal spending increased 0.1% in February while the PCE Price Index and core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, both rose just 0.1%. For March, personal income increased 0.4%, as expected, while personal spending surged 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus +0.8%). The PCE Price Index increased 0.2% while the core PCE Price Index was flat (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%).
o The key takeaway from the report is that this data was imputed in the first quarter GDP report, so it shouldn’t be too surprising. Ultimately, it helps advance the narrative that the U.S. economy seems to be benefiting still from solid consumer spending activity and muted inflation pressures.