Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are little changed; moving sideways since the close on Friday
- The odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2937.75 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- February Core PCE Price Index ( 0.1% vs. 0.2% est. ; prev. 01.%) at 8:30 AM
- February Personal Spending (0.1% vs. 0.2% est. ; prev. 0.1% ) at 8:30 AM
- March Core PCE Price Index (0.0% vs. 0.1%est.) at 8:30 AM
- March Personal Spending (0.9% vs. 0.7% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Income (0.1% vs. 0.4% est.; 0.2% prev. ) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly up – Shanghai and Sydney closed down; Tokyo and Mumbai were closed for trading
- European markets are mostly lower – U.K and Switzerland are up
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.52%, down from April 25 close of 2.534%;
- 30-years is at 2.948%, up from 2.947%
- 2-years yield is at 2.330%, down from 2.342%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.199, up from 0.192
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2926.64, 2923.68 and 2917.56
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2940.91, 2947.32 and 2954.76
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2946.75, the high of 4:00 AM and break below 2937.75, the low of 7:00 AM
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2941.75 and the index closed at 2939.88 – a spread of about +1.75 points; futures closed at 2941.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are little changed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -0.50; Dow unchanged and NASDAQ down by -2.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday, April 26 in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in higher volume. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ COMPOSITE and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are near their al time highs. Dow Jones Transportation Average, Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite are not as close to their all time highs.
For the week, most indices closed up. DJIA and DJT were down for the week. The volume was higher than the previous week. DJIA made a near doji and DJT made a spinning top candle. Other made large green candle with small or almost no upper shadows and small lower shadows.
The S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) set new closing highs on Friday, as shares of Amazon (AMZN 1950.63, +48.38, +2.5%) and strong Q1 GDP data helped the market steer past early weakness.
The underperformance in the energy and semiconductor stocks, however, put a lid on further gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 outperformed with a gain of 1.0%.
The big moves in Amazon and Ford (F 10.41, +1.01, +10.7%), which also provided solid results, boosted the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector (+0.9%). The health care (+1.0%), financials (+0.9%), and consumer staples (+0.9%) sectors also outperformed.
Signs that the U.S. economy is exhibiting solid growth and muted inflation pressures was another positive consideration for equities and U.S. Treasuries alike. The advance estimate for first quarter GDP increased 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 1.9%), while the GDP Price Deflator was up just 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%) after increasing 1.7% in the fourth quarter.
The 2-yr yield declined four basis points to 2.27%, and the 10-yr yield declined three basis points to 2.51%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.2% to 98.04.
• Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 1.9%), according to the advance estimate for first quarter GDP. The GDP Price Deflator was up just 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%) after increasing 1.7% in the fourth quarter.
o The key takeaway from the report is that it reinforced the market’s Goldilocks view of the U.S. economy, which is exhibiting solid growth and muted inflation pressures.
• The final reading for the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for April edged up to 97.2 (Briefing.com consensus 96.7) from the preliminary reading of 96.9. That was down from the final reading of 98.4 for March, but right in-line with the average for the past 28 months.
o The key takeaway from the report is that 44% of consumers said they were feeling better about their financial prospects for the year ahead. That is the highest level for that reading since 2004 and another indication that should quiet recession talk.