Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are unchanged; moving down since 4:30 AM
- Odds are for a down to sideways day – watch for break above 2842.50 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
- FOME Economic Projections at 2:00 PM
- Fed Funds Rate at 2:00 PM
- FOMC Press Conference at 2:30 PM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly down – Tokyo and Mumbai closed up
- European markets are mostly lower – U.K. and Italy are up
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.591%, down from March 19 close of 2.614%;
- 30-years is at 3.050%, down from 3.028%
- 2-years yield is at 2.458%, down from 2.470%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.133, down from 0.144
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2823.27, 2818.26 and 2810.79
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2842.65, 2852.42 and 2856.32
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2839.25, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2833.25, the low of 8:30 AM
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2840.00 and the index closed at 2832.57 – a spread of about +7.50 points; futures closed at 2836.50 for the day; the fair value is +3.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -0.25; Dow up by +5; and NASDAQ up by +2.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend
- Daily: Up Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Side-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Tuesday, March 19 in mostly higher volume. NASDAQ Composite closed up slightly and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The early session’s lack-luster trading decidedly turned negative mid-day and then major indices mostly traded down.
The S&P 500 advanced as much as 0.7% on Tuesday, bolstered by dovish expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. Conflicting U.S-China trade headlines, however, induced some profit-taking interest after a recent stretch of gains, as did a late-day slide in oil prices, which hit their highs for the year earlier in the session. The S&P 500 was down as much as 0.3% but managed to close near its flat line.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) and the Russell 2000 (-0.6%) finished lower after being up as much as 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite finished higher by 0.1% after being up as much as 0.7%.
The S&P 500 utilities (-1.2%), financials (-0.8%), and industrial (-0.4%) sectors underperformed the broader market. Conversely, the health care (+0.8%), consumer discretionary (+0.5%), and information technology (+0.2%) sectors were the lone groups to finish with gains.
U.S. Treasuries closed on a lower note, pushing yields slightly higher. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield increased one basis point each to 2.46% and 2.61%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.2% to 96.37. WTI crude increased 0.1% to $59.34/bbl.
Reviewing Tuesday’s lone economic report, Factory Orders for January:
• Factory orders increased 0.1% in January (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) on the heels of an unrevised 0.1% increase in December.
o The key takeaway from the report is that business investment picked up, evidenced by a 0.8% increase in orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft that followed a 0.8% decline in December. Shipments of those same goods also increased 0.8% in January, which will be a positive input for Q1 GDP forecasts.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – February)||Relative Strength (March)||%K vs. %D (March)|
|Consumer Discretionary||Down||SPY (Cross-Under)||SPY||Above|
|Real Estate||Down||SPY (Cross-Under)||SPY||Below|