Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; drifting down since 3:30 AM and lower by 15 points from the high of 2814.00;
- Odds are for an up day with high probability of moving sideways from the pre-open session – watch for break above 2801.00 and break below 2793.00 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 57.5; 57.7 prev.) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher
- European markets are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 3.037%, up from November 30 close of 3.013%;
- 30-years is at 3.325%, up from 3.311%
- 2-years yield is at 2.827%, up from 2.786%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.206, down from 0.227
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2790.17, 2775.99 and 2764.24
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2806.79, 2814.75 and 283144
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2801.75, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2793.00, the low of 6:00 PM on Sunday
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2756.50 and the index closed at 2760.17 – a spread of about -3.75 points; futures closed at 2758.25 for the day; the fair value is -1.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +39.25; Dow by +432; and NASDAQ by +142.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: In Correction
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday November 30. Major indices broke above the high of previous day’s doji candle, a bullish sign. The volume was mostly higher. NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume.
For the week, major indices closed higher in mostly higher volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume from previous week. Stocks closed higher in Asia and Europe too. Sydney exchange was down.
The S&P 500 rallied 4.9% this week, helped by the Fed softening its policy stance and by hope that U.S-China trade tensions would be meaningfully eased at the G-20 Leaders Summit. For the month, the benchmark index rose 1.8%.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.2%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.6%, and the Russell 2000 gained 3.0%. For the month, the respective indices gained 1.7%, 0.3%, and 1.5%.
On a related note, the FOMC’s minutes from its November 7-8 meeting, which were released on Thursday, did nothing to upset the notion that the Fed will be hiking rates next month; the CME FedWatch Tool puts the chances at 82.7%.
This week, all S&P sectors finished higher with the consumer discretionary (+6.4%), information technology (+6.1%), health care (+5.9%), and communication services (+5.5%) sectors outperforming.
The SPDR Retail ETF (XRT) rose 5.1% this week, and Amazon (AMZN) climbed 12.5%.
Conversely, the defensive-oriented real estate (+2.7%), consumer staples (+2.9%), and utility (+2.7%) sectors underperformed the broader market, though still finished with respectable gains.
Looking at other markets, the Treasury yield curve saw some flattening with the 2-yr yield losing one basis point to 2.81%, and the 10-yr yield losing four basis points to 3.01%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.3% to 97.20, and WTI crude added 0.1% to $50.67/bbl, though lost over 20.0% this month.
Overseas, equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region closed the week on a modestly positive note with Japan’s Nikkei (+3.3%) showing relative strength. In Europe, the major indices closed the week slightly higher with Italy’s MIB (+2.5%) showing relative strength.
Index Started Week Ended Week Change % Change YTD %
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – November)||Relative Strength (Current)||%K vs. %D|
|Consumer Staples||Under Pressure||XLP||XLP||Above|
|Industrials||Down||XLI (Cross – Over)||XLI||Below|
|Heath Care||Under Pressure||XLV (Cross – Over)||XLV||Above|