Morning Notes – Thursday September 20, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; broke above a cup-with-handle pattern on 30-minutte charts at 7:00 AM
  • Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2916.25 for change of fortune
  • Key economic data due:
    • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (22.9 vs. 17.5 est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Sydney closed down; Mumbai was closed
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/INR
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil (unch.)
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Copper
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 3.088%, up from September 19 close of 3.068%;
    • 30-years is at 3.238%, up from 3.210%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.820%, up from 2.803%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.144, down from 0.148

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2903.82, 2895.44 and 2886.16
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2912.36, 2916.50 and 2920.81
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2927.00, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2916.25, the low of 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2914.25 and the index closed at 2907.95 – a spread of about +6.25 points; futures closed at 2915.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up +9.75; Dow by +138.00; and NASDAQ by +37.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on September 14 was a green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow; closed above previous week’s high
  • Last week’s pivot point=2893.35, R1=2919.93 R2=2934.87; S1=2878.41, S2=2851.83; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week following a down week; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.44 and the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 are achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3013.72
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A small doji candle with small upper shadow and smaller lower shadow that opened and closed just above previous day’s close within its upper shadow;
  • %K above %D after dropping to 55.86 from 93.94
  • Above 20-day EMA, above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving mostly sideways since 12:00 PM on September 18 near highs
  • RSI-9 declining from a high of 70.63 to 50.66
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving mostly sideways since 11:00 Am on September 18
  • Below a downtrend line from a high of 2914.00 at 2:00 PM on September 18
  • RSI-9 is above 40 since 10:00 PM on September 17 with occasional forays above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 2:30 PM on September 18
  • The band was narrow from 8:45 PM to 5:00 AM; expanding since with price moving along upper band
  • RSI mostly above 40 since 9:45 Pm on September 17
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D at 6:30 AM from 50
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday September 19 in mixed volume. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed down. DJIA and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Finance
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Industrials
  3. Technology
  4. Utility
  5. Heath Care
  6. Real Estate
  7. Telecom

 

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