Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; moving down since 2:00 PM on June 22;- Odds are for a down day in the early sessions – watch for break above 2747.50 and break below 2739.25 for more clarity
- No key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed down
- European markets are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.893%, down from June 21 close of 2.900%;
- 30-years is at 3.040%, down from 3.045%
- 2-years yield is at 2.541%, down from 2.549%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.352, up from 0.351
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2744.39, 2739.51 and 2728.74
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2761.46, 2774.16 and 2779.91
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2747.50, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2739.25, the low of 6:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2757.75 and the index closed at 2754.88 – a spread of about +3.25 points; futures closed at 2759.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -14.75; Dow by -173.00; and NASDAQ by -60.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Down
- 30-Min: Side-Down
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min:Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on June 22 was a red spinning top candle with almost equal sized upper and lower shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2757.69, R1=2772.18, R2=2789.49; S1=2740.38, S2=2725.89; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; first in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- A large red candle with no upper shadow and small lower shadow; 3-day evening star is emerging
- %K s below %D; made a small divergence on June 13 above 90
- At/below 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13 in steps; sequence of lower highs and lower lows broke at 8:00 PM on June 20;
- Break above a down-sloping flag didn’t last; made a piercing candle at 6:00 AM; at the upper limit of the flag after a brief drop near the lower limit on June 21
- RSI-9 fell from 55.52 to 26.84 by 12:00 AM on June 25; rising since then to 34; below 65 since 12:00 AM on June 222
- %K crossed above %D at 6:00 AM on June 25 from below 10 after making a bullish divergence
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Near the lower limit of a symmetrical triangle; at a resistance zone
- RSI-9 moving along 40 since 3:30 PM on June 22
- At/above 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side-Down
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 1:15 AM
- The band is narrow, relatively, since 1:15 AM; price moved along the lower band till 6:15 AM
- RSI moving higher since 6:30 AM
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed above %D at 6:45 AM from below 30; %K crisscrossing %D around 80
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Friday June 22. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed lower. The volume was mixed too as it declined for S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite.
For the week, only Russell 2000 advanced, the volume was mixed and only Consumer Staples, Energy, Utility and Real Estate sectors advanced.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Finance
- Technology
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Friday June 22. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed lower. The volume was mixed too as it declined for S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite.
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