Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher;- Odds are for an up day with good likelihood of sideways move from pre-open level – watch for break above 2706.00 and below 2696.25 for more clues
- Key economic data due:
- CPI ( 0.1%2vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Core CPI ( 0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (211K vs. 219K est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly up – Mumbai was down
- European markets are mostly lower – Germany and U.K. are up; Switzerland is closed
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Dollar index
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
|
- NatGas
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.977%, down from May 9 close of 3.004%;
- 30-years is at 3.150%, down from 3.155%
- 2-years yield is at 2.510%, down from 2.539%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.467, up from 0.465
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2693.17, 2674.56 and 2655.20
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2702.84, 2708.51 and 2717.49
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2706.00, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2696.25, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2696.25 and the index closed at 2697.79 – a spread of about -1.50 points; futures closed at 2696.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.00; Dow by +62.00; and NASDAQ by +24.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on May 4 was a small real body candlestick line with very small upper shadow and very long lower shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2646.99, R1=2699.35, R2=2735.29; S1=2611.05, S2=2558.69; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
- A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in the middle of the pattern
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A relatively large green candle that is breaking out from two day’s of indecisive doji candles; nearing the upper bound of a symmetrical triangle
- Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Rising since 10:00 AM on May 3 in steps; higher highs and higher lows; near a resistance zone around 2683.00 level; approaching a resistance zone between 2713.00 and 2718.00
- RSI-9 bounced off 40 at 12:00 PM on May 8 and is above 65
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broken above horizontal channel – between 2658.00 and 2681.50 – 100% extension target is achieved; 161.8% extension target is near 2720.00
- RSI gradually declining from a high of 76.52 at 1:30 PM on May 9; just above 61 after touching 50
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways from 6:45 PM on May 9 with an up bias;
- The band is narrowed slightly at 3:00 AM
- RSI declining from a high of 79.31 at 2:00 PM on May 9; now rising and is near 65 after touching 40
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D at 7:00 AM above 80 with potential bearish divergence
- Bias: Up-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices advanced on Wednesday May 9 in mostly higher volume and increased volatility. Only S&P 500 traded in less volume than previous day. Most f the indices are the upper end of a trading range or breaking out.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
|
- Utility
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices advanced on Wednesday May 9 in mostly higher volume and increased volatility. Only S&P 500 traded in less volume than previous day. Most f the indices are the upper end of a trading range or breaking out.
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