Morning Notes – Wednesday September 13, 2017

/ September 13, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower
  • Moving lower since 6:00 PM on September 12
  • Odds are for a sideways to down – watch for break above 2495.50 for a change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • PPI (0.2% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Core PPI (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Tokyo and Mumbai closed higher; Hong Kong, Sydney and Seoul closed lower; the intra-day trend was sideways to up; Sydney and Mumbai pulled back late in the day
  • European markets are mostly higher – U.K. and STOXX 600 are down; intra-day trend is sideways
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Cotton
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.160% down from September 12 close of 2.171%; 30-years is at 2.765% down from 2.775%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2490.37, 2480.99 and 2472.2
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2498.71, 2500.94 and 2505.11
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2495.0, the high of 6:00 PM on September 12 and break below 2489.00, the low of 3:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2494.25 and the index closed at 2496.48 – a spread of about 2.25 points; futures closed at 2494.25 for the day; the fair value is 0.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is little change to down – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -3.00; Dow by -15.00; and NASDAQ by -10.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up-to-Side
  • Daily: Up-to-Side
  • 120-Min: Side-to-Up
  • 30-Min: Side-to-Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A red harami candle within a large green candle for the week ending on Friday September 8; almost 1.2% below all time high of 2490.87 reached during the week ending on August 11
  • Last week’s pivot point 2459.98; R1=2473.42, R2=2485.40; S1=2448.00, S2=2434.56; none of the resistance or support levels were breached
  • A down week – third in last five weeks; fourth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Bouncing off 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
Daily
  • A small green candle that gapped up with no upper shadow and a small lower shadow; all time closing high and intra-day
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is nullified when price broke below 2430.00; however, the index was below 2430.00 for only one day and the pattern may be revived
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2494.71; R1=2498.71, R2=2500.94; S1=2492.31, S2=2488.14; R1 was breached
  • Uptrend under pressure; mostly moving sideways since June 2 between 2490.00 and 2410.00
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Futures drifting lower ever so slightly since 6:00 PM on September 12
  • Last pattern ABCD; the second target, CD=AB*1.618 near 2493.25, was achieved
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
  •  At/above flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving lower from the high of 2495.50 reached at 6:00 PM on September 12; at Tuesday’s pre-NYSE open level
  • Higher high and higher lows since 5:00 AM on August 29 with one exception
  • Breaking up from a sideways move since 8:30 AM on August 31 between 2479.50 and a low of 2455.50
  • At/below drooping 20-bar EMA, which is above flattening 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday September 12 in a follow through of the big gain on Monday. Tuesday also opened up with a gap which did not fill during the day. 1 after a gap up open. The gap was not filled during the day. The intra-day trend was mostly sideways for S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Wilshire 5000 Total Market index. Other gradually moved higher during the day.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Industrials
  2. Finance
  3. Heath Care
  4. Consumer Discretionary
  5. Consumer Staples
  6. Energy
  7. Materials
  8. Technology
  1. Utility
  2. Real Estate

 

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