Morning Notes – Thursday March 16, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • The futures are higher;
  • Drifting higher since NYSE session close on Wednesday
  • Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2377.75 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic report: Philly Fed Manufacturing and Unemployment Claims

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower
  • Dollar index and USD/JPY are lower; GBP/USD and EUR/USD are higher
  • Commodities are mostly higher – NatGas is down
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.508% on March 15 down from March 14 close of 2.595%; 30-years closed at 3.106% down from 3.172%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2378.30, 2368.94 and 2358.18
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2390.01, 2400.91 and 2414.94
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2388.75 high of 3:30 AM and break below 2377.75, the low of 4:30 PM on March 15


  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.75, Dow by +32.00 and NASDAQ by +8.50
  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2382.00 and the index closed at 2385.26 – a spread of about +3.25 points; futures closed at 2380.50 for the day; the fair value is +1.50

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
  • Candlestick for the last week, Friday March 10, was a  red doji candle – small body, small upper shadow and slightly larger lower shadow
  • Did not breach the high of previous week
  • Broke a streak of six consecutive positive weeks
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is met; next target is near 2363.14
  • Last swing low, 2083.79, was the low on November 4, 2016
  • Above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Gapped up at the open which was not filled; large green candle following few doji candles;
  • Broke above a down sloping flag but still below the high of the flag pole
  • Intraday range was 0.9%; less than 1.00% since December 29;
  • Breaking out from an up-sloping channel that is in effect since December 27
  • Above 100-day, 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA/EMA
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • Last swing low 2263.62
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Price broke above a descending triangle; near the high of 2301.00;
  • Upswing since 10:00 AM on March 14
  • Uptrend is under pressure
  • Above flat-to-rising 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Up trend since 10:30 Am on March 14; higher highs and higher lows;
  • Nearing 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 2401.00 on March 1 to the low of 2354.00 on March 9; the 61.8% retracement level is near 2382.25
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA and 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday March 15. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite gapped up at the open and broke above a down sloping flags on daily timeframe though all are still below the high of the flag-pole.

Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 made bullish engulfing patterns and are bouncing off near the lower limit of horizontal channels.


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