Market Diary – Wednesday July 13, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:


  • The bias is to the up side
  • The 30-minute chart of S&P 500 futures is showing many breakouts above bullish flags for the past few days
  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2145.45 and 2136.62
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2158.53 and 2164.91;
  • Early morning futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 is up by +5.50, Dow by +34.00 and NASDAQ by +13.25

Before NYSE Session Open

SPX_D_160712_EoDOn Tuesday, S&P 500 continued its march upward. All major US indices closed at the high for 2016.

Asian Session

The Asian bourses were mostly up on Wednesday.

  • Shanghai Composite was up by +11.308 or +0.37% to 3060.69 near the high for the day and it is nearing the resistance of 3097.16
  • Hang Seng was up +97.63 or +0.46% following through after the break above a symmetric triangle on Tuesday
  • Nikkei 225 closed up by +135.78 or +0.84 to 16231.43 but it closed below the open and is in danger of making an evening star pattern if it closes below or near Tuesday’s low of 16095.65 during the next trading day
  • Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gained +35.3 or +0.66% to 5388.50; the next resistance is near 5427.70, the upper bound of a previous rectangle trading range
  • Sensex gained +7.04 or +0.03 but closed below the open
  • South Korea’s Kospi gained 14.32 or +0.72% but made a near doji

European Session

In pre-US session, for the fifth day in a row, the European stock markets are mostly up.

  • DAX is up by +27.50 or +0.28% as it continues to fill June 24th gap down
  • FTSE-100 is up +4.48 or +0.07% to 6685.17 after making a doji on Tuesday
  • CAC-40 is up by +0.56%, Spanish IBEX up by +0.72%, STOXX-600 by +0.40, and Swiss SMI-SWX by +0.05%; all are making chart pattern similar to that of DAX
  • Italian FTSE MIB is down by -0.27%,


  • U.S. Dollar index is down by -0..102, now firmly back in the handle of an uneven cup-with-handle pattern
  • EUR/USD is up by +11.4 pips to 1.10729; on Tuesday it closed in the bottom 15% of the range
  • GBP/USD is up by +16.0 pips to 1.3265, inching toward the resistance of 1.3534
  • USD/JPY is marginally down by -24.2 pips (Yen is stronger) to 104.507; on Tuesday it gained 199.9 pips


  • WTI Crude is down by -0.90% to 46.38; Natural Gas is up by +1.76% to 2.784
  • Gold is up by +7.10 to 1342.40 after losing 21.30 on Tuesday;
  • Silver is up by +1.53% to 20.480 and is making a bullish engulfing candle
  • Copper is up by +1.94% to 2.2560 and has broken above a resistance level


  • U.S. Treasury yields are down after a closing up on Tuesday after a gap-up; at 8:30 AM 30-year is down to 2.191% and 10-year to 1.469%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA crossed above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

S&P 500 Cash eMini Futures
 Daily Level Break
Level Break
Pivot 2149.01 2141.17
R1 2158.53 62% 2153.83 57%
R2 2164.91 42% 2161.92 31%
R1 2174.43 46% 2174.58 25%
S1 2142.63 35% 2133.08 35%
S2 2133.11 34% 2120.42 26%
S3 2126.73 23% 2112.33 23%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3

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