Market Diary – Thursday July 7, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:


  • The bias is to the up side, with a strong possibility of a range-bound day
  • On 30-minute chart, S&P 500 futures is within a rectangle trading box
  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2094.60 and 2090.72
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2103.04 and 2108.71;
  • Early morning futures price action is indecisive

Before NYSE Session Open

Asian Session

The Asian bourses were mixed overnight.

  • Shanghai Composite was down (unchanged) by -0.4457 or -0.01%; after few up days it made a spinning top, more like a doji, indicating indecision; chances of it resolving to the upside are high
  • Hang Seng was up +211.63 or +1.03%; it is in the middle of  a symmetric triangle
  • Nikkei 225 declined by -102.75 or -0.67% after it broke below an up-sloping flag on Tuesday’s gap-down
  • Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gained +30.40 or +0.58% and made a bullish engulfing on Thursday
  • Sensex was up +34.62 or +0.13% after a close day on Wednesday; it made a red harami (close below open) candle within a larger red candle of Tuesday
  • South Korea’s Kospi recovered more than half of Wednesday’s loss by gaining +20.96 or +1.07%; it made a green-harami candle within a large red candle of Wednesday

European Session

In pre-US session, European stock markets are mostly down and also near the lows reached post-Brexit vote.

  • DAX is up by +38.90 or +0.42%, however, its making a red harami candle within a larger red candle;
  • STOXX 600 is up by +1.19% and making a green harami candle within a red candle
  • FTSE-100 is up +77.66 or +1.20% after shedding -81.79 on Wednesday
  • CAC-40 is up by +1.00%; Italian FTSE MIB is up by +0.27% and Spanish IBEX-35 is up by +0.67% and they all are making chart pattern similar to that of DAX
  • Swiss SMI-SWX is up by +0.53% after a gap-up but the last price is below the open for the day;


  • U.S. Dollar index is marginally up by +0.054 to 96.185; it fell back again within an up-sloping flag with a high point of 96.86 after a spike of Wednesday
  • EUR/USD is down up by -18.5 pips to 1.10760;
  • GBP/USD is up by +70 pips to 1.2996;earlier it reached a high of 1.3047
  • USD/JPY is down by +24.90 pips (Yen is stronger) to 101.14 in a downtrend
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index is up by +0.4%


  • WTI Crude is up by +0.52 or +1.12% to 47.95; Natural Gas is up by +1.33%
  • Gold is down by -3.7 or -0.27% to 1363.40; Silver is down by -0.223 or -1.10% to 19.980
  • Copper is down by -0.39% to 2.145


  • U.S. 30-years is marginally up to 2.155 after a record low on Wednesday
  • U.S. 10-years is up by 2 basis points to 1.4025 after an all time low on Wednesday

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA crossed above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

S&P 500 Cash eMini Futures
 Daily Level Break
Level Break
Pivot 2091.49 2084.75
R1 2108.96 61% 2103.75 57%
R2 2118.19 42% 2113.50 31%
R1 2135.66 44% 2132.50 24%
S1 2082.26 36% 2075.00 36%
S2 2064.79 34% 2056.00 26%
S3 2055.56 23% 2046.25 23%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3

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