The S&P 500 has been in a continuous uptrend since 2009. In between, it retraced few times including a -21.6% decline in 2011. During this time, many of its sectors outperformed it over extended periods of time. By rotating into these sectors when they were outperforming the index would have been a good strategy. With that in mind let’s see how the…
Here is what’s happening around the net that I came across on Wednesday and Thursday morning. A financial crisis-era economic warning sign has appeared – This was one of the things that happened in 2008, prior to the Lehman Moment. The inventories/sale ratio in January 2008 was 1.16 – just where it was in December a…
Here is what is happening around the net that I stumbled across on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. It looks like OPEC is winning the oil price war – Demand for oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is set to rise this year, while growth in US oil production will slow as American energy firms cut back…
The Treasury Yield curve is normal but it was steeper three-month ago than now. So the expectation of future inflations are falling and not rising. Over the one month period (not shown in the attached graph), the curve has not changed much. A flattening curve could also happen in anticipation of slower economic growth and when…
Noted for your Tuesday morning ruminations or procrastinations – take you pick. Here is what is happening around the net that I came across on Monday and early morning preparing for the day’s activities. EU energy consumption level falls to 20-year low – The dramatic drop in annual consumption – in 2013, the year to which…
The Federal Reserve has not raised key interest rates for a long time. The last time it raised rates was on June 29, 2006. After that, beginning in the third quarter of 2007, it started to cut rates and since December 2008, it has kept the Fed Funds rate between 0-0.25%. Now the Fed is giving hints that it is getting ready…
Noted for your Monday morning ruminations or procrastinations – take you pick. Here are some of the interesting things that I read over the weekend and Monday morning that you may also find thought provoking. Anxiety and Interest Rates: How Uncertainty Is Weighing on Us – One puzzle is that many people are willing to lock…
The first week of a month usually packs in lot of economic reports and events and February was no different. Here is the economic review of major events and reports. The first half of week’s reports are discussed here. Asia & Oceania Australia Retail Sales m/m missed Down Under, on Thursday (local time). Australian Bureau of…
Central banks around the world are highly active. Some, like in Switzerland and Denmark, are working overtime to prevent their respective currencies appreciate too much. Some, like in emerging markets – India, Russia, Ukraine etc. – are fighting to prevent their currencies not depreciate a lot. Then there are others, like in Japan, U.S.A. and EU, who are…
Noted for your weekend ruminations or procrastinations – take your pick. Here is what I read or perused on Friday and weekend. Hope you will find it interesting and intellectually stimulating. The Dollar and the Recovery (Wonkish) – So, what’s actually happening? The dollar is rising a lot, which suggests that markets regard the relative rise in US…
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