The preliminary reading was 50.4 for a purchasing managers’ index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) and Markit Economics. It compares with a final level of 49.5 for October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
Gains in manufacturing bolster prospects for a sustained pickup in economic growth that slowed last quarter to the weakest pace in more than three years. A rebound may smooth a once-a-decade leadership transition for the ruling Communist Party, set to install Li Keqiang as premier in March, and reduce the likelihood of additional monetary stimulus.[…]
Economists have scrapped projections for any easing of monetary policy in the rest of 2012. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News Nov. 14-19 see China holding the reserve- requirement ratio for the biggest banks at 20 percent through the end of the year, based on the median estimate. That compares with the median forecast for a 0.5 percentage-point cut in last month’s survey.
China’s gross domestic product is poised to expand 7.7 percent this year, the weakest pace since 1999, based on the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News this month. Growth may pick up to 8.1 percent in 2013, according to the median of 46 forecasts.